臺灣與中國的經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）已於2010年7月29日完成簽署 [1]，其目標在於撤除彼此之間的關稅壁壘與貿易限制。但相反地，美國眾議院卻於2010年9月29日通過了「兩大黨皆強力支持的提高中國進口產品關稅法案，假如此亞洲大國繼續人為地限制其貨幣升值的話。」[2]
雖然臺灣在這些年來享有對中國的貿易順差，但在兩岸之間的所有關稅與貿易障礙都被撤除之後，臺灣是否能繼續享有貿易順差，不無疑問。畢竟，被低估的人民幣不會僅僅對美國造成問題而已。除非臺灣能在貨幣戰爭中倖存，否則當ECFA完全實施後，即使臺灣能在與中國的貿易戰爭中倖存，與多數臺灣民眾真正攸關的，卻是難以避免的高失業率問題。
人民幣的低估會導致中國勞工與生產成本相對便宜許多，因而多數臺商企業皆傾向於在中國製造產品後再把產品拿來賣錢，而非在臺灣製造。這就是為何臺灣的高失業率以及受薪階級家庭並不一定能受益於臺灣的貿易順差及國民生產毛額成長數據的原因。
在一個實施自由市場經濟體制的國家，政府只會透過運用當地貨幣在外匯市場買賣外匯的方法來干預匯率。這種干預措施只會在不違反自由市場原則下，於一定程度範圍內來影響匯率的變化，畢竟價格仍是由供給與需求法則所決定的。然而，在2005年7月之前，以及2008年6月至2010年7月間，人民幣兌換美元的匯率卻是幾乎維持不變。這種現象是不可能在自由市場經濟體制下出現的，而且只能透過操控而非干預來達成。
因此，任何想與中國享有共同自由市場的國家，皆必須注意到其對手並非總是遵守自由市場的遊戲規則。可預料的是，中國的這種手法並不會在短期內有什麼急劇的改變。如同中國溫總理於2010年10月6日說的，「如果人民幣沒有維持穩定，將給中國與世界帶來災難。假使我們如同某些人要求的讓人民幣升值20到40個百分比，我們將會有許多工廠關門，社會也會陷入動盪不安。」[3] 由此顯現出來的真正意涵是：連中國總理自己都承認，中國的過度繁榮需歸功於其異常「穩定的」貨幣。
然而，「當初中國加入世界貿易組織時，大家都以為他們會遵守遊戲規則。」美國眾議院議長裴洛西表示，「如果中國想與美國建立穩固的貿易關係，它就必須遵守遊戲規則。這是我們應該為美國勞工爭取的權益。」「我們之所以這麼做是因為，如果中國政府能夠停止操控匯率，讓其貨幣回歸市場機制運作，美國將會增加一百萬個工作機會。」 [4]
當然，被低估的人民幣並非造成今日美國經濟困境的唯一原因。但不可否認地，直到目前為止，中國仍然是一個在某種程度上實施計畫經濟體制的國家，以及在政治上至少是半獨裁體制的國家。這兩個特性是中國與世界上其他國家與眾不同之處，也是為什麼臺灣與之進行自由貿易協定談判時，務必特別謹慎的原因。
The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between Taiwan and China was signed on June 29th, 2010, [1] which aimed at eliminating tariffs and trade barriers between the two sides. On the contrary, on Sept. 29th, 2010, the US House of Representatives passed “a bill with strong bipartisan support that would raise tariffs on Chinese imports if the Asian giant keeps an artificial lid on its currency”. [2]
Although Taiwan has been enjoying trade surplus with China all these years, it is open to question that the trade surplus will continue after all the tariffs and trade barriers are eliminated. After all, the undervalued Chinese Yuan will not be a problem for the US only. Short of surviving the currency war, even if Taiwan can survive the trade war with China under the ECFA, it is the inevitable high unemployment rate that really matters for most Taiwanese people.
With the cheaper labor and production cost due to the undervalued Chinese Yuan, most Taiwanese owned corporations tend to make money by selling product made in China, rather than Taiwan, which is why the high unemployment and working families in Taiwan can not necessarily benefit from the trade surplus and the GDP growth numbers of Taiwan.
In a country employing free market economy, government will only interfere in foreign exchange rate through trading in foreign currencies with its local currency in foreign exchange market. This kind of interference can only influence foreign exchange rate to a certain extent without breaking free market principles since the price is still determined by the law of demand and supply. However, RMB (Renminbi, the Chinese Yuan) exchange rate stayed nearly unchanged against US dollar before July, 2005 and between June, 2008 to July, 2010, which was something we would not see in a free market economy and could only be manipulated rather than interfered.
As a result, any country who want to share a common free market with China must notice that its counterpart does not always play by the free market rules. This kind of manoeuvre of China is not expected to change dramatically in the near future as China Premier Wen said on Oct. 6th, 2010: ”If the yuan isn’t stable, it will bring disaster to China and the world. If we increase the yuan by 20-40 percent as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down and society will be in turmoil.” [3] . What it really means is that even the China Premier himself has admitted the overheated prosperity of China owes a lot to its oddly “stable” currency.
However, “when China came into the WTO, it was projected that they would play by the rules,” said Pelosi, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. “If China wants a strong trading relationship with the United States, it must play by the rules. We owe that to American workers.” “We do this because 1 million American jobs could be created if the Chinese government took its thumb off the scale and allowed its currency to respond to market forces.” [4]
Undoubtedly, the undervalued Chinese Yuan alone can not fully account for the US economic woes today. Nevertheless, up until now, China is still undeniably a country with planned economy, to some extent, and semi-dictatorship politics, to say the least. Both of these characteristics have set it apart from other countries in the world, which are also why Taiwan should be particularly cautious about engaging in free trade agreement talks with it.
美國眾議院議長裴洛西解釋公平貿易貨幣改革法案的情形。此法案以348對79的壓倒性票數在眾議院獲得通過。 Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, explained the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act. The legislation passed the House by an overwhelming vote of 348 to 79. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buZw_m6eTjo)
參照 References
[1] Wikipedia. “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Cooperation_Framework_Agreement
[2] Hill, Patrice. “House passes tariff bill to stop China’s yuan imbalance with U.S.” The Washington Times. Sept. 29th, 2010. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/29/house-passes-bill-china-artificial-currency-value/
[3] Wu, Zijing and James G. Neuger. “China Hardens Opposition Over Yuan Gains, Tells EU to Back Off.” Bloomberg Businessweek. Oct. 7th, 2010. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-06/china-hardens-opposition-over-yuan-gains-tells-eu-to-back-off.html
[4] Office of the Speaker of the House. “Pelosi: Bipartisan Currency Reform Bill Makes It Clear That China Must Play by the Rules of Fair Trade.” PR Newswire. Sept. 29, 2010. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pelosi-bipartisan-currency-reform-bill-makes-it-clear-that-china-must-play-by-the-rules-of-fair-trade-104042028.html
